The Bank of Ghana (BoG) is forecasting economic growth of around 6 per cent in the second half of 2026, as the country’s recovery gains momentum on the back of coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, structural reforms and the IMF-supported programme.
Governor of BoG, Dr Johnson Asiama, said the recovery had become firmly established, with improving economic activity, stronger external buffers and greater stability in the local currency pointing to a more sustained expansion.
“Looking ahead, we expect growth of around 6 percent in the second half of the year, as this recovery matures,” Dr Asiama said.
He was speaking at the Fidelity Bank Debt Capital Markets Conference 2026, where he outlined developments in the economy and the outlook for growth and financial stability.
Growth momentum strengthens
Dr Asiama said Ghana’s economic recovery had gathered significant pace after several years of weak growth.
Real GDP growth strengthened to about 6 per cent in 2025, compared with 2.8 per cent in 2023, with services and agriculture contributing significantly to the expansion, alongside mining and a broader recovery in industrial activity.
The momentum has continued into 2026, with the economy recording 6.4 per cent growth in the first quarter, slightly higher than the 6.2 per cent recorded during the corresponding period of 2025.
According to the Governor, the latest performance provides a stronger foundation for the projected 6 per cent growth in the second half of the year.
He said the improvement was not occurring in isolation but reflected the combined effects of fiscal consolidation, monetary policy, structural reforms and measures under the IMF-supported programme.
Gold, cocoa boost external position
The Governor said the improving growth outlook was being reinforced by a significantly stronger external position, particularly higher export receipts from gold and cocoa.
“Strong gold and cocoa receipts have delivered a trade surplus of about 8.8 billion in the first half of this year,” he said.
The stronger trade position has helped bolster Ghana’s international reserves and provide greater support for the stability of the domestic currency.
Gross international reserves stood at US$12.9 billion at the end of June 2026, equivalent to approximately five months of import cover.
The development represents an important strengthening of the country’s external buffers and provides greater capacity to withstand external shocks.
Cedi stability boosts confidence
Dr Asiama also pointed to the relative stability of the cedi as another important feature of the ongoing recovery.
The local currency appreciated by 40.7 per cent against the US dollar in 2025, following a loss of nearly 20 per cent of its value in 2024.
The Governor said the cedi had remained broadly stable during 2026, helping to ease pressures from imported inflation while strengthening business and investor confidence.
“The cedi, which had appreciated last year by 40.7 percent after losing nearly 20 percent in its value in 2024, has held broadly stable into this year, easing imported inflation and reinforcing confidence,” he said.
The relative currency stability also provides a more favourable environment for businesses and households by reducing uncertainty surrounding imported goods, production inputs and foreign-currency obligations.
Fiscal consolidation remains key
Dr Asiama attributed much of the improvement in the economy to the government’s fiscal consolidation programme, which he said had become a key pillar of the recovery.
“Fiscal consolidation has been a key pillar of Ghana’s economic recovery,” he stated.
He said stronger domestic revenue mobilisation, prudent expenditure management and efforts to restore debt sustainability had helped improve the country’s fiscal position.
According to the Governor, the progress being recorded reflects the cumulative impact of coordinated policy measures introduced following the economic and financial difficulties experienced in 2022 and 2023.
He said the economy was now moving from an initial recovery phase into a more sustained period of expansion.
The Governor’s projection of around 6 per cent growth in the second half of 2026 therefore points to continued confidence at the central bank that the combination of macroeconomic stabilisation, stronger exports, fiscal consolidation and currency stability can support Ghana’s recovery through the remainder of the year.
