Ghana’s energy security is expected to remain stable despite global oil market tensions, supported by the resumption of operations at the Tema Oil Refinery.
A report by Fitch Solutions, an international rating agency, said the development would reduce the economy’s exposure to external supply disruptions.
The report said recent volatility in global energy prices, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and strained relations among major oil producers, had raised concerns for import-dependent economies.
However, it said Ghana was relatively insulated following the restart of operations at the Tema Oil Refinery (TOR) in December 2025, after years of shutdown due to debt and maintenance challenges.
The report said the resumption restored domestic refining capacity and reversed Ghana’s recent position as a net oil importer.
“With TOR operational, Ghana is projected to be broadly oil-trade neutral or a modest net exporter in 2026, limiting the direct impact of global price spikes on the country’s trade balance,” it said.
It noted that the development was significant amid persistent risks of supply disruptions, including possible escalation in tensions between the United States and Iran, which could affect shipping routes and crude availability.
Data from the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Ghana indicated that Ghana’s hydrocarbons trade position was nearing balance, suggesting that higher crude prices would not necessarily worsen the current account.
Under favourable conditions, it said higher prices could boost export receipts from crude oil.
Consequently, the report projected Ghana’s current account surplus at about 4.2% of GDP in 2026, above the historical average deficit recorded between 2010 and 2024.
It said the surplus would support macroeconomic stability and ease pressure on the local currency.
The report said strong export earnings and prudent external financing had strengthened foreign exchange reserves, which stood at about US$14.4 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2026, equivalent to approximately six months of import cover.
It said the reserve buffers provided adequate capacity for the Bank of Ghana to intervene in the foreign exchange market in the event of external shocks, including those from global energy markets.
