International ratings agency Fitch Ratings has projected that Ghana’s economy will grow by 5% in 2026, signalling a slowdown from the 5.9% Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth recorded in 2025 as escalating tensions in the Middle East create fresh risks for emerging and developing economies.
In its latest assessment of Sub-Saharan African sovereigns, the UK-based ratings firm said the expanding conflict involving the United States and Iran is likely to exert pressure on several African economies through higher energy costs, inflationary pressures and potential disruptions in global supply chains.
Although Ghana is expected to maintain positive economic growth, Fitch believes the external environment has become considerably more challenging, with oil-importing countries particularly vulnerable to the fallout from rising crude oil prices and possible shortages of refined petroleum products.
Sub-Saharan Africa better positioned than in 2022
According to Fitch, countries across Sub-Saharan Africa are entering the current crisis from a much stronger position than they did when the Russia-Ukraine war erupted in 2022.
The ratings agency noted that many African governments have implemented significant monetary, fiscal and macroeconomic reforms over the past few years, helping to improve economic resilience and strengthen policy credibility.
It said improvements in exchange rate management, fiscal consolidation programmes, revenue mobilisation efforts and subsidy reforms have enhanced the region’s ability to withstand external shocks.
“Sub-Saharan African sovereigns face the external shock precipitated by the US-Iran war from a stronger starting point than when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022,” the report stated.
However, Fitch cautioned that the unfolding conflict will provide a major test of the durability of these gains.
Energy costs and inflation identified as key threats
The agency identified higher energy import costs as one of the most significant transmission channels through which the conflict could affect African economies.
It warned that countries dependent on imported fuel could face rising import bills, pressure on foreign exchange reserves and increased inflation.
Apart from crude oil, potential disruptions in the supply of refined petroleum products and fertiliser could further compound economic challenges across the region.
Fitch said governments may also face mounting pressure to introduce fiscal support measures to cushion households and businesses from higher fuel and transportation costs.
For Ghana, which relies heavily on imported petroleum products despite being an oil producer, sustained increases in global oil prices could place additional strain on inflation management efforts and increase operational costs for businesses.
Growth expected across the region
Despite the risks, Fitch maintained a generally positive outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa.
The agency said all Fitch-rated sovereigns in the region are expected to record economic growth this year, with the median growth rate projected at 4 percent, unchanged from 2025.
“Our baseline forecasts are for real GDP growth in all Fitch-rated SSA sovereigns this year, with the median of 4% unchanged from 2025,” the report noted.
However, it warned that some oil-importing economies remain exposed to supply shocks that could worsen if governments attempt to shield consumers from the full impact of rising international fuel prices.
According to the agency, such interventions could encourage speculative hoarding and artificially increase demand, creating additional market distortions.
Central banks better prepared to respond
Fitch also observed that inflationary pressures are beginning to rise across several African economies, although many countries are benefiting from a relatively low inflation base compared to previous years.
The report noted that greater currency stability has helped moderate inflation in several jurisdictions.
As a result, many central banks across the region are entering this period of uncertainty with stronger policy tools at their disposal.
Fitch said most African central banks are currently operating positive real policy rates, providing room to respond if inflation accelerates further due to the conflict.
External buffers improved
The ratings agency further highlighted improvements in the external positions of many African economies.
According to Fitch, several countries now have narrower current account deficits than they did in 2022, while foreign exchange reserves in many jurisdictions cover at least three months of external payment obligations.
It also pointed to greater exchange rate flexibility as an important factor supporting economic resilience.
The agency added that elevated prices for certain export commodities could help offset some of the negative effects of higher energy costs, depending on the composition of individual countries’ trade portfolios.
Fiscal pressures remain
Despite the improvements, Fitch cautioned that political and social pressures continue to constrain fiscal adjustment efforts in many countries.
While governments have undertaken revenue mobilisation measures and subsidy reforms since 2022, public resistance to higher costs remains a challenge.
The agency noted that fiscal interventions aimed at reducing the impact of higher energy prices have been widespread across the continent but have generally remained temporary and relatively limited in scope.
For Ghana, the report suggests that maintaining macroeconomic stability while navigating external shocks will remain a critical policy challenge in 2026 as the country seeks to sustain growth momentum amid an increasingly uncertain global environment.
